Germany has voted. After a long, soporific election campaign conducted by the CDU/CSU and SPD, what I had already predicted has now come to pass: the CDU/CSU and SPD suffered heavy losses and were punished by the people for four years of cosy politics.
The Chancellor and the CDU/CSU
The first reaction of the re-elected Chancellor suggests that this will continue in a similar vein – were it not for the reality of new constellations. ‘We have achieved our election goals. No government can be formed against us,’ Chancellor Merkel said after the election. Was this the right reaction? This is not only a typical expression of power-preserving politics, but also a misunderstanding of the culture of opinion. The role of the opposition, be it the SPD or the AfD, is to actively oppose the government when necessary, to strike a balance in order to represent as many interests in society as possible – there can be no question of a government against the government. These parties reflect serious interests of the population, and the government must try to take these into account without widening the divide within the country. It is to be hoped that there will now be a competition of ideas and arguments. What we have seen in recent weeks and months has been a refusal to engage in political discourse.
The endless lament
The fact that the AfD has now made it into the Bundestag is not the end of the world, but an opportunity. Now, at the latest, is the time to actively engage with the party, to listen to the needs of voters and, more importantly, to take them seriously. This does not mean that racism, anti-Semitism and the like should be made socially acceptable, but that the AfD can be taken down a peg or two. For the first time, the AfD is no longer playing the victim but is part of parliament. The government has the opportunity to disarm the AfD with good policies and a discursive fireworks display of arguments and counterarguments. It is to be hoped that the political establishment will not repeat the same mistake and will not act and govern from a position of moral superiority, but will learn from the lessons of recent years in national and international politics. In addition to the internal party conflict between the left and right wings, the rift within the AfD is widening. Party leader Dr Frauke Petry announced her resignation from the party. She will not be part of the AfD in the Bundestag and will pursue her own political goals. Unity looks different.
The returnees
Thanks to its strong comeback, the FDP has the opportunity to regain a foothold in German politics. Its focus on digitalisation was particularly well received by the younger generation. However, in the coming years, the party must build a tangible profile that goes beyond Lindner himself. Lindner ran a perfect election campaign and, thanks to his demeanour, his reorientation of the party and his powers of argument, won over five per cent more votes than in the last election. Now the party as a whole must follow suit so that its current success is associated not only with Lindner but with the party as such.
The new sympathies
What this new coalition means for Switzerland remains to be seen. On the one hand, Switzerland can gain sympathy through liberal values with a government that includes the FDP. Switzerland can also serve as a model for Germany in the areas of direct democracy, the principle of subsidiarity and upcoming reforms. On the other hand, the FDP is still very much in the minority in a black-yellow-green coalition and will probably have to fall in line, especially on foreign policy issues. Despite supranational developments in Europe, the national interest remains at the forefront on essential issues, as we have seen in recent years of crisis. This policy of individual states pursuing their own interests continues to depend on the balance of power within the community of states and is not to be found in domestic politics or government constellations.
The new direction
The new situation in Germany is a Herculean task. The thrust of the possible Jamaica coalition diverges on many points and interests, in some cases even seriously. The SPD, weakened and disillusioned, is almost forced to take on the tough role of the opposition so as not to leave it to the strong right-wing AfD. The AfD will continue to try to stay the course and feed off the disillusioned – and thus stands diametrically opposed to the government.
Fears of economic, social and cultural decline have awakened ghosts that people had hoped to leave in the past. However, the elections have now confirmed that these ghosts will play an active role in German politics over the next four years.